Post image for Should you care if your bank is unstable?

Jimmy Stewart is dead.

There’s a great scene in It’s a Wonderful Life when the bank of the protagonist, Jimmy Stewart, suffers a bank run. Fearing that Stewart’s bank might be going under, many of its customers come running, asking to withdraw all their savings, lest they be the ones left holding the bag when the bank doesn’t open. Sure enough, the bank gets down to its last few dollars before closing time arrives, but the bank makes it.

Bank runs were a fact of life toward the beginning of the last century—a problem that was supposed to be solved by FDIC insurance. But just a couple years ago, we were treated to some similar behavior. When IndyMac failed, customers waited hours in the heat to withdraw their deposits. A few of them had deposits in excess of $100,000, which was the FDIC limit at that time. A lot didn’t, but were just as worried.

Every time news of bank stress tests or yet another failing bank come out, I see stories about how to check up on your bank’s stability, as if having an average or below-average rated bank is an awful thing. I’ve seen arguments made on both sides. How much should you care about the stability of the financial institutions you use?

FDIC limits and your liquid accounts

You probably know that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation protects up to $250,000-worth of deposits you make with each financial institution. Congress recently made permanent the higher, $250k limit, as up until the financial crisis, the limit was set at $100,000.

Easy message here: Don’t keep more than $250,000 in checking accounts, CDs, and savings accounts with one bank. Honestly, unless you were close to or in retirement and have a great need for really safe savings, I don’t see why you’d have that much at a bank anyway.

But (maybe) a more surprising message, as long as you have less than $250,000 in cash to park, look for unstable banks. They’re the ones that need your money the most and will pay you the best rates to get it. According to a recent search of the best 1-year CD rates at Bankrate.com, nine of the 12 banks with the top offered savings rates came from banks rated three stars or fewer in stability.

Those banks are afraid of going under, but you don’t need to be afraid of those banks. If you have less than $250,000, even the tiniest increase in yield you get from going with a less stable bank is worth it, because with FDIC insurance backing you up, that two-star bank is no less safe than the five-star bank. Obviously, make sure that the bank you put your money is, in fact, covered. And if you’re especially worried, you can use this FDIC tool to make sure you’re not over the limit.

No one should own a money market fund right now.

The chances of your money market fund “breaking the buck” and losing money are very low. But it is a risk, and there have been a couple high-profile cases of money market funds going under in the last couple years. Money market funds are meant to be short-term savings vehicles, that offer a low yield but never lose value. To achieve that, the firm you put the money with is supposed to invest in safe, short-term bonds. The problem, as the funds that did lose value found out, is that humans aren’t always good predictors of what bonds are “safe”.

But let me say it again: I don’t think your money market fund is likely to lose money. But I also think it’s silly to own one right now.

In this regard, I am a hypocrite. I have thousands of dollars in Vanguard’s money market fund, earning 0.12%. Imagine if David Bach tried to sell The Latte Factor using that rate. “If she just skipped her $5 per day latte, in 20 years at 0.12% compound interest, her savings would become more than $28,000!” Not quite as compelling as a million dollars, eh. And just for context, according to Crane Data, the top yield for a money market fund right now is 0.26%.

And yet, because it’s Vanguard and because a mutual fund is an “investment”, I’m for some reason keeping this stash sitting there, when I could get a much better rate at a money market account. How much better? Well, according to Bankrate, I could get a money market account at Sallie Mae with an annual yield of 1.39%, which is more than ten times higher than what I get with Vanguard. What’s more, it would be FDIC-insured. Lower risk, higher return. Sorry, Vanguard, it’s time to transfer those funds.

The confusion over brokerage account insurance

Bernie Madoff was the most high-profile case, but there have been several accounts of brokers running investment scams that resulted in their investors losing billions of dollars.

Of the kinds of accounts I’m going to write about today, this is where I think you need to be the most careful. Yes, brokerage accounts are “insured”. But in these cases, you run the highest risk of having assets beyond the insurance limit.

First, it’s important to note that the Securities Investor Protection Corporation, which covers your brokerage accounts, isn’t a federal agency. It’s a nonprofit, funded by the securities broker-dealers who are its members. Its sole responsibility is to facilitate the transfer of customers’ assets from one broker to another in case the broker goes bankrupt. So if you owned 100 shares of Bank of America at Broker X, which went bankrupt, SIPC would make sure those 100 shares made its way to Broker Z.

SIPC’s insurance limits only come into play when those 100 shares end up missing, which sometimes happens with bad record keeping, but, in this digital age, most often happens when a broker ends up being corrupt. For individuals, SIPC will replace up to $500,000-worth of securities, including up to $250,000-worth of cash. That sounds like a lot, and indeed, it’s above the FDIC limits. But whereas you’re unlikely to have more than $250,000 at a bank, you’re very likely to have more than $500,000 at a brokerage if you’re well into saving for retirement.

Spreading your investments between brokerages is probably not worth the effort. If you handle your investments yourself with a well-known brokerage like Vanguard or Fidelity, I probably wouldn’t even worry about it. But if you have a financial advisor who invests directly for you, run the simple checks listed here to make sure he or she actually buys the securities he says he’s buying.

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Post image for “New Normal” math: How your investing plans must change

So, when can we start calling it the “old normal”?

Stocks have gone nowhere in ten years. Not even dividends have made it better. Sure, you might have had a bit of a gain if you stuck your money in emerging markets at the right time or gold or any of the other asset classes that turned slightly positive. But on the whole, buy-and-hold investors had it pretty crummy.

And yet, we still get this from Dave Ramsey (hat tip to All Financial Matters for noting the clip). On slide 12 of an otherwise smart little video on not rushing out to buy a new car, Ramsey throws out this line (paraphrased): “But instead of spending that money, you’ve invested it in a mutual fund earning the average stock market return of 12%.” Bwahahaha.

A 12 percent stock market return is so 1998. We know now that 12% is wildly optimistic. Eight percent might even be optimistic. What’s more reasonable? Take this sobering assessment from Bill Gross in Money Magazine this month: “Instead of 10% returns for stocks, look for five or so. And instead of the past 20 years’ returns on bonds, which are actually better than stocks — close to double digits — it’s 4% going forward.” Oof.

Gross, and his colleagues at bond investment shop PIMCO, call this low growth period for investments and the U.S. economy the “new normal.” It’s hard to say PIMCO is “talking its book“, because it doesn’t see bonds as faring all that well either.

There seems to be a general consensus that PIMCO is more right than Ramsey is. But I don’t think the implications of changing stocks’ rate of return from 10% to 5% have sunk in. We acknowledge that stock returns will be poor, and yet all of our retirement advice—save 10% of your income…withdraw 4% in retirement—stays the same. So, for your viewing pleasure, here are a couple math problems.

How your savings rate changes.

Scenario: 45-year old making $90,000 per year. Plans to retire at 65. Holds a $200,000 portfolio.

In real life, this guy would slowly shift his money from stocks to bonds, but to keep it simple, let’s just assume he puts it all in stocks. Since we’re using an “average” rate of return, rather than the volatile real-life returns he’d really get, we’re being generous.

Old math: If he saves 10% of his income per year (pretty standard advice), his portfolio grows to $1.86 million. Using the flawed-but-ubiquitous 4% rule, in his first year of retirement, he could afford to withdraw $74,400. Combined with Social Security, that’s not a bad income.

New math: But what if his portfolio only returns 5% per year, as Gross predicts? If he held steadfastly to saving 10% per year, at age 65, he’d have $828,253. That would leave him with an income of just over $33,000 plus Social Security. That’s less than half of the old math scenario.

Unacceptable, right? So what does he have to save instead? Please don’t cry. That 45-year old, trying to achieve a $1.86 million portfolio with only a 5% return, would have to save forty-four percent of his salary per year. If he was willing to work until age 70 instead, he could save 28%. But still, that’s a huge difference. I used the simple calculator here for all the calculations.

How your withdrawal rate changes

Oh, and about that 4% withdrawal rate. I’ve written before about how writers and planners twisted the findings of a few Trinity University professors into a mantra that at least one of the professors doesn’t believe. But the 4% rule gets even more off base when you start to assume stocks grow more slowly than they have in the past.

Why? Well the Trinity guys used stock returns between 1926 and 1997 to inform their results. That’s a time period that saw the United States rise from upstart nation to global superpower. Do we really think the pattern of returns we saw then is going to repeat itself going forward? As financial columnist-turned-money manager Scott Burns notes, when you start to factor in the sad truths of modernity—like lower interest rates, lower dividends, and, yes, lower stock returns—the rules developed by probability studies that were done just a couple decades ago don’t seem to apply any more.

Shutting down in the face of uncertainty.

I don’t save 44% for retirement. Not close. I don’t save 28% for retirement. Still not close. In the face of numbers like that, it’s no wonder that we’d rather hear about magical 12% rates of return on stocks that no one believes anymore.

The good news is that if you’re young, you have time. And while you can’t control what your investments do, you have a couple other dials you can turn to give yourself a chance to retire. One, is the aforementioned savings rate, no doubt the most painful of the bunch.

Option number two: Retire later. You’re likely going to live to an age older than your parents anyway, and I’m sure you’ve had it in the back of your mind that it was never reasonable to work 40 years and then have a 40-year retirement anyway.

And option number three—the most fun option—is to earn more money. With a higher salary, you can save 28% but maintain the standard of living you had when you were earning less and saving 10%. Unless you have a defined benefit pension—and few private sector employees do anymore—this is the only truly guaranteed way to have a reasonable shot at early retirement.

Just a small prediction: You’re going to be hearing a lot about earning more from me and personal finance authors in the coming years. Because we’re finally starting to realize that investing well and being frugal just isn’t going to be enough anymore.

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How to prepare for a double-dip recession

July 20, 2010
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Or what’s going to feel like a double-dip anyway. Don’t read too much into that. I’m not making a prediction. But there are plenty of people who are. Nouriel Roubini, that guy who just happened to predict the first financial collapse, says it’s likely we’ll have a double dip, in which GDP drops again after [...]

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Earn more money. It matters more than everything else combined.

July 16, 2010
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Little tweaks vs. titanic decisions I enjoy personal finance blogs a lot. Admittedly, some of the time, what they cover can get a bit redundant. A lot redundant. Mind-numbingly redundant. But hey, the best personal finance advice is timeless. It’s the clever repackaging that makes or breaks someone new who steps into the field. But [...]

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Does being smart make you better with money?

July 13, 2010
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Oscar Wilde died broke, why not you? Ok, bad example. Wilde was an extremely gifted poet and playwright, but he had a lot of personal problems confounding him before his death. This post is about a question that’s a little more clear cut than that: Does being smart make you better with money? Yeah, it’s [...]

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Foreign bonds: Do you need them?

July 10, 2010
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Just because you can doesn’t mean you should. A decade ago, there were few options for investing in foreign bonds that didn’t cost a bundle. Even today, you’re going to have a lot of trouble investing in foreign bonds directly. But the options for investing through mutual funds and ETFs, either with active or passive [...]

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When will you die?

July 5, 2010
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More important: How long can you afford to live? Imagine living to the age of 122. That’s the oldest recorded age of a human, achieved by frenchwoman Jeanne Calment. Calment died in 1997. Just last week, scientists claimed to have discovered genetic markers that can predict, with 77% accuracy, who’s destined for extremely long life. [...]

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Where did your time go? Here’s an actual breakdown.

June 24, 2010
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You probably watched T.V. A lot of T.V. Sometimes I’m not totally sure why the government tracks all the things it tracks. Private universities get funding to study all sorts of strange issues, but it’s really the Labor Department that has incredible repositories of data, some of which never even get seen unless an economist [...]

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Why you procrastinate

June 22, 2010
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Psychologists say it’s not a time management problem. So what’s going on? My college memories rapidly faded after graduation, but one of my most vivid, enduring memories is of one of my former roommates, who was a chronic procrastinator. Sure, he waited until the last minute on take-home tests, 10-page papers and studying. But my [...]

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This much money will buy you happiness

June 16, 2010
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My happiness level is 7. Economists have a way of taking the joy out of joy. That’s the first thought that crossed my mind when I read a study by David Blanchflower of Dartmouth and Andrew Oswald of the University of Warwick that talked about “happiness equations” and “happiness-maximizing numbers”. Nothing like an economist to [...]

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